Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods in Developing Countries by Keshav Lall Maharjan & Niraj Prakash Joshi

Author:Keshav Lall Maharjan & Niraj Prakash Joshi
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer Japan, Tokyo

6.3 Time Series Analysis

Use of past time-series data on yield and climate variables is another important methodology to establish relationship between climate variables and yield of agricultural crops. Such analysis will be crucial in understanding future climate change effect on agriculture (Nicholls 1997). The possibility of capturing the effect of climate trends over the past period on agriculture was first put forth by Nicholls (1997) through his seminal paper published in the Nature. The same methodology was applied by Lobell and Asner (2003) to assess the relation between climate variation and crop production in the US, which was published in Science. Since then, the methodology has been widely employed to assess the impact of climate variables on yield of several crops in the global scale, country level or regional level (Peng et al. 2004; Lobell et al. 2005; Lobell and Field 2007; Joshi et al. 2011). Regression equation used to assess the effect of climate variables on agricultural crop yield is as follows:

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